Economic and market brief
Economic and market analysis for business leaders
September 29, 2025
From bricks to bytes: Artificial intelligence for business owners
It’s been nearly three years since artificial intelligence (AI) went public. In that time, its promise has grown every quarter across seemingly every sector of the economy. Amid stunning headlines touting Big Tech’s capital mobilization, over $300 billion1 in planned spending in 2025 alone, investors are keen to understand how they could potentially benefit from this revolutionary technology. “We haven’t even scratched the surface about how much money is needed,” says Haim Israel, Head of Global Thematic Research for BofA Global Research.
In the video above, Israel talks to Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer, Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, about the trajectory of the AI buildout, the race between U.S. and China for dominance, and potential beneficiaries — from commodities, such as copper, nickel and silicon, to sectors including energy and transportation — that may feel an AI boost. Additionally, they discuss the risks associated with AI and what you should keep an eye on as this technology revolution accelerates.
1 Tech megacaps plan to spend more than $300 billion in 2025, Samantha Subin. CNBC, Feb. 8, 2025.
September 8, 2025
Top lessons from the 2025 Workplace Benefits Report
Running a business today means balancing growth with the reality of employee needs. The 2025 Workplace Benefits Report highlights where employees are struggling and what business owners should prioritize in 2025.
What employees want
Employees are under pressure. Eighty-five percent carry personal debt, and more than half have credit card balances. Retirement and emergency savings are still top priorities, yet half haven’t reached their emergency savings goal, often because debt repayment takes precedence. This stress pushes workers to look beyond traditional health insurance and 401(k)s. They want help managing debt, planning retirement income, and building financial skills.
One of the clearest signals in the report is the power of equity. Seventy-one percent of employees say stock awards influenced their decision to accept or stay in a job. Career optimism is also higher for those who receive equity (70% versus 64% without). Yet few small businesses extend equity broadly, leaving a strong retention lever untapped.
Communication is another weak spot. Even when benefits exist, employees often don’t know about them. Only 39% of workers are aware of investment services at work, compared with 52% of employers who say they provide them. Similar gaps appear in mentoring, wellness reimbursements, and emergency loans.
Where small businesses lag
The divide between large and small firms is sharp. Employees at large companies report greater financial well-being (57%) than those at small businesses (41%). Larger employers are more likely to offer financial wellness programs, while 51% of small businesses focus mainly on competitive fees.
Technology is widening the gap. Eight in 10 employers use AI for efficiency and talent management, but nearly a third of small businesses don’t use it at all. Only 21% of small firms say AI improves hiring, compared with 46% of large employers.
The takeaway is simple: benefits strategy is business strategy. In 2025, employees expect equity, savings support, debt solutions, smart use of AI, and clear communication. To explore tailored solutions for your business, consider speaking with a Bank of America relationship manager.
July 17, 2025
Small business profitability is up, but hiring has moderated from last year
Halfway through the year, small business profitability persists. It rose 1.8% year-over-year (YoY) in June, the highest level this year, according to Bank of America small business account data (Exhibit 1). And there’s more good news in the sector: the small business labor market remains in fair shape, providing a solid foundation for the rest of the economy given that such companies employ nearly half of the US population.
In fact, according to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), in June 2025, a seasonally adjusted net 13% of owners said they plan to create new jobs in the next three months, up one point from May. However, in our view there are some cracks in the picture: hiring has slowed in the face of economic uncertainty, and labor costs are reemerging as a top concern for small businesses.
Small business payments to hiring firms were down 3.4% YoY in June on a three-month moving average, though remain relatively equal to the 2024 average level (Exhibit 2). However, on a month-over-month (MoM) basis, in June, such payments rose 2.2% from May on a three-month moving average.
July 9, 2025
Will the U.S. economy enter the “R” zone this year?
After weeks of tariff-related business disruptions, economic uncertainties and market volatility, ongoing trade talks have eased widespread fears of a 2025 recession. “Beyond those encouraging signs, there are other reasons to believe we’ll avoid a recession,” says Marci McGregor, head of Portfolio Strategy for the Chief Investment Office (CIO), Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. “At a difficult moment, the U.S. economy has shown remarkable resilience.”
In the video above, McGregor explains why and how consumer spending and the labor market have outperformed expectations despite widespread fears that both might wither in the wake of trade disputes. While a recession could still happen, the power of the U.S. economy and higher individual wealth relative to liabilities have buffered the economy, McGregor says.
Important disclosures:
The opinions expressed are as of 5/28/2025 and are subject to change.
Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The Chief Investment Office (CIO) provides thought leadership on wealth management, investment strategy and global markets; portfolio management solutions; due diligence; and solutions oversight and data analytics. CIO viewpoints are developed for Bank of America Private Bank, a division of Bank of America, N.A., (“Bank of America”) and Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated (“MLPF&S” or “Merrill”), a registered broker-dealer, registered investment adviser and a wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of America Corporation (“BofA Corp.”).
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