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Economic and market brief
Monthly economic and market insights for business leaders
July 22, 2026
What business owners can learn from the FIFA World Cup 2026™
Spain took home the trophy, but many business owners came away with wins from the FIFA World Cup 2026™.
Bank of America Institute data shows household card spending rose 5.1% year over year in May, the strongest pace in nearly four years, with event-related activity helping lift travel, dining, retail and entertainment businesses.
The beautiful game worked its magic on consumer spending
The biggest spending surges were seen in Kansas City, Los Angeles and Miami based on preliminary data, though every host city we analyzed managed to stay in the win column. The opportunity may extend well beyond FIFA World Cup 2026TM. Major events can attract new customers, stretch marketing dollars and strengthen ties with clients, employees and communities. With each event, businesses have many chances to turn attention into sales. Here’s what business owners can do:
- Use targeted promotions to capture event-driven demand
- Align products and messaging with the event buzz
- Prioritize high-margin experiences and add-ons
- Keep pricing clear for value-focused customers
- Manage inventory carefully once the surge fades
The key is balance. An event can boost traffic and sales, but not every lift will last. Plan for the moment, then stay ready to adjust. For example, a simple FIFA World Cup 2026™ bracelet giveaway from Bank of America sparked long lines and resale buzz. The lesson for business owners is that timely ideas can turn mega-event energy into outsized demand. Speak with a Bank of America business specialist to help transform big-event buzz into business growth.
June 24, 2026
A turbulent year for business: What comes next?
An unexpected geopolitical conflict and persistent U.S. inflation have made 2026 unpredictable for business owners.
The focus now is what’s next and how leaders should respond.
In this 2026 Midyear Outlook webcast, Chris Hyzy of Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank’s Chief Investment Office examines the forces shaping the second half of the year, including supply chain disruption, cost pressures and accelerating technology change.
Explore the full 2026 Midyear Outlook to learn more about geopolitical risk, inflation’s impact on operations, AI’s role in productivity and how policy shifts may influence business planning.
Connect with a Bank of America business specialist to see how today’s economic changes could shape your strategy, costs and next phase of growth.
June 22, 2026
Making sense of economic trends for business planning
In this conversation, Sharon Miller, President of Business Banking at Bank of America, and Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, connect the economic backdrop to real-world decisions facing business owners.
They discuss the current environment, including inflation, interest rates and credit conditions, along with business confidence, innovation and a preview of the 2026 Midyear Outlook.
For many owners, the challenge is translating economic headlines into business strategy and day-to-day decisions. Activity remains steady in many sectors, yet uncertainty continues to shape planning decisions.
The discussion highlights that market growth persists, but it is uneven. Businesses are navigating multiple forces at once, from policy shifts to global dynamics and evolving consumer behavior.
In a volatile economy, business owners should stay focused on flexibility, capital discipline and identifying where demand remains resilient. Connect with a Bank of America business specialist to align today’s economic insights with your capital, financing and growth decisions.
June 12, 2026
AI lifts manufacturing as investment fuels growth
Artificial intelligence is becoming a practical growth lever for business owners, especially in manufacturing. BofA Global Research expects U.S. GDP to grow 2.4% in 2026, with AI adoption helping boost productivity, support capital investment decisions, and strengthen overall economic momentum.
What Matters Today: Manufacturing production has been lifted by AI investment
Contributions to annual growth in manufacturing production
For business owners, the opportunity lies in “physical AI,” the integration of AI into robotics and industrial systems. Bank of America Institute highlights that humanoid and advanced robots could scale significantly, with the global population projected to reach 3 billion units by 2060. Early deployment is concentrated in manufacturing, where automation can help address labor shortages, rising wages, and operational inefficiencies while increasing output and consistency.
AI is also expanding beyond isolated tasks into connected systems. The technology is advancing toward a structural shift where “anything that moves is becoming autonomous,” spanning vehicles, industrial equipment, and logistics networks, while also unlocking multi‑billion‑dollar addressable markets across these sectors. For business owners, this signals a future where production, inventory, and distribution are increasingly integrated, enabling more efficient, scalable, and adaptive operations.
The implications are clear. Business owners investing in AI-enabled equipment and systems can help reduce costs, improve throughput, and strengthen resilience in a more complex operating environment. While upfront capital spending may increase, the payoff comes through higher productivity, better scalability, and stronger competitiveness.
April 17, 2026
Labor market steady amid uneven business demand
The Bank of America Institute finds the labor market that regained its footing in March, with payroll growth at 1.4% year over year. For business owners, that signals demand is holding up and hiring conditions are stabilizing after a choppy start to 2026. But growth is increasingly concentrated, which makes revenue visibility less predictable.
Wages tell the more important story. Higher-income households are seeing 5.6% growth, compared to 2.0% for middle-income and 1.0% for lower-income workers, the widest gap since 2015. That divergence is already reshaping spending. Premium demand is holding, while more price-sensitive customers are under pressure.
The driver is bonus income, which is rising for higher earners but is still negative for other groups. That creates a narrow spending tailwind at the top without lifting the broader consumer base.
- Payroll growth: 1.4% year over year, signaling steady demand
- Wage divergence: 5.6% vs. 2.0% vs. 1.0%, widest gap in a decade
- Unemployment signal: Benefits growth fell to below 9% year over year
At the same time, 61% of business owners said labor shortages are impacting them, according to the Bank of America 2025 Business Owner Report. Demand may be steady, but finding and keeping workers is still a challenge. For business owners, this means aligning pricing and product mix to where income is growing, managing inventory tightly, and investing in productivity to offset staffing gaps.
March 27, 2026
Why physical AI matters for business owners
Physical AI represents a pivotal evolution in artificial intelligence, shifting capability from software into machines that can see, decide, and act in real‑world environments, according to the Bank of America Institute. This transition is creating multi‑trillion‑dollar opportunities for business owners across robotics, autonomous vehicles, and drones.
Breakthroughs in sensors, multimodal foundation models, and simulation now enable robots to learn through interaction instead of rigid rules. These capabilities make them more adaptable and effective in business environments. Early commercial deployments include warehouse automation, manufacturing assistance, logistics workflows, and hazardous‑task handling.
Business owners should pay attention because several forces are accelerating adoption:
- Lower costs and rising capability: Advances in chips, batteries, and AI models are making intelligent machines increasingly affordable for businesses of all sizes.
- Strong investment momentum: Robotics companies received $41 billion in funding in 2025, the highest share of AI equity deals, signaling growing commercial readiness and rapid infrastructure scaling.
- Open‑source innovation: Freely available AI models and tools reduce the need for expensive R&D, allowing companies to customize automation solutions more quickly and cost‑effectively.
As autonomy transitions from rules‑based systems to end‑to‑end, data‑driven intelligence, physical AI is poised to reshape operational models across industries. Early adopters stand to gain efficiency, safety, and productivity advantages that can materially improve competitiveness.
Talk to your specialist about how you might be able to finance these transformative changes for your business.
March 16, 2026
Navigating economic volatility and policy shifts
Business owners are entering a period defined by heightened geopolitical tension and shifting trade policy, both of which have direct implications for planning, cash flow, and long‑term strategy.
With the U.S. and Israel launching a military campaign against Iran on February 28 and retaliatory strikes occurring across the Middle East, business owners are bracing for uncertainty. “While U.S. economic uncertainties and market volatility will likely rise, fiscal and monetary support should keep the U.S. economy clear of recession and corporate profit growth intact,” says Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank.
At the same time, business owners continue to adjust to a shifting trade landscape following the U.S. Supreme Court’s February 20 ruling that struck down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. With questions remaining around tariff refunds and the potential for new trade actions, uncertainty around supply chains, pricing, and procurement strategies is still elevated.
In moments like these, scenario planning becomes an essential discipline. Business owners can strengthen resilience by stress‑testing their assumptions:
- Identify areas where the business is most exposed
- Model potential tariff or cost impacts
- Assess client concentration risks
- Evaluate operational bottlenecks
- Prioritize adaptability over perfect forecasting
“Stress testing your scenarios can equip you to course‑correct fairly quickly, as opposed to saying, ‘This too shall pass.’ It might, but it might not. You’ve got to have the ability to flex when needed,” says Karl Bovee, Business Banking executive for Bank of America.
Together, these strategies can help business owners navigate volatility with clarity and position their organizations for long‑term stability and growth.
February 13, 2026
How tax season will affect economic growth
Tax season in 2026 is likely to trigger a meaningful, if temporary, surge in consumer spending, with the biggest impact felt by households that tend to spend a larger share of every additional dollar, according to the Bank of America Institute.
Several forces are lining up behind this boost. Changes under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, combined with the fact that the IRS did not adjust withholdings last year, are set to deliver larger refunds this spring. Higher standard deductions, new deductions for tip and overtime income, and an increase in the state and local tax deduction cap are all contributing factors.
BofA Global Research estimates that refunds in 2026 could be about $65 billion higher than 2025, a rise of 18%. Most of these payments will be made between February and April.
What might people spend their larger refunds on? Exhibit 12 shows consumer spending trends from 2025 over the three-week period after receipt of a tax refund compared to the prior three weeks. The data shows that largest rise in spending was on goods, but there were also large increases in travel and leisure spending. As expected, given the higher ratio of tax refunds to average monthly spending, the boost was larger for lower-income households.
“The positive wealth effect among higher-income households will likely underpin solid levels of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) this year, as will the expected chunky tax refunds for many households over the first half of 2026,” said Joe Quinlan, head of Market Strategy in the Chief Investment Office at Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank.
1 Tech megacaps plan to spend more than $300 billion in 2025, Samantha Subin. CNBC, Feb. 8, 2025.
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